The United States and China are unlikely to see a rapid hit to their credit ratings from a trade war, S&P Global's top sovereign analyst has said, with damage more likely concentrated on poorer countries and those already on downgrade warnings.

The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

As I repeatedly said, I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them,” Bessent said Monday morning on CNBC. So